What one should choose depends on what is optimal.

(1) Should it be the thing that is most probable?

This might serve the purpose of making the selection easier, or
creating greater compatibility between the past and the future.

(2) Should the choice be highly selective?

This might be important if it is a choice between sugar and poison.
Perhaps the choice requires knowledge of some special

(3) Should the choice be free-willed?

If what matters is one's freedom to make selections in general,
than free will might be important. Maybe the best selections in
general are only made if one has a habit of free willed choice.

(4) Should the choice be rational?

Maybe what authenticates a choice is one's capacity for reason.
In this case, the choice does not even count if it is not a rational
choice. Maybe rational choices are more real than other types of
choices. Or maybe reason is required for making conscious
choices, if consciousness is something desirable.

(5) Should the choice be ethical?

Adding ethical considerations might belabor the choice, but it
might serve the advantage of assisting in determining which
choices are best in the long run.